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Determining change address

hoping to gain a bit more clarity on how change addresses work here.
In the attached example, can the change address be identified with 100% certainty? Is there a potential scenerio where it could be the first one, and a potential where it could be the second (without knowing more details about who sent it, what wallet they used etc). I see some people say you can’t be certain, but in most cases it seems fairly obvious (ie the odds are overwhelming that it is the 2nd smaller amount for example)