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Determining change address

hoping to gain a bit more clarity on how change addresses work here.
In the attached example, can the change address be identified with 100% certainty? Is there a potential scenerio where it could be the first one, and a potential where it could be the second (without knowing more details about who sent it, what wallet they used etc). I see some people say you can’t be certain, but in most cases it seems fairly obvious (ie the odds are overwhelming that it is the 2nd smaller amount for example)
Thanks!

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/90cb1a71128bda33b00d9008b08ec6cfd3ea8f9868753e038a8b719c6b97f9c1